Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 2.046539 2.714590 3.620216 4.968496 6.979849e+00 9.962926e+00 14.911006
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 1.438117 2.187420 3.399948 5.623146 9.891348e+00 1.845327e+01 39.280955
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 1.024065 1.736298 3.069177 6.003774 1.316799e+01 3.292791e+01 109.549131
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.824970 1.553970 3.132055 7.356809 2.099478e+01 7.807713e+01 545.010836
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.665211 1.374073 3.124764 8.786168 3.336517e+01 2.053729e+02 5208.053935
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.550877 1.238855 3.164964 10.708965 5.638755e+01 7.001094e+02 486593.668294
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.456930 1.107259 3.146900 12.756709 9.603171e+01 3.215291e+03 NaN
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.356760 0.909711 2.787304 12.925747 1.307595e+02 1.320569e+04 NaN
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.276948 0.733993 2.384047 12.325963 1.618102e+02 6.283418e+04 NaN
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.231436 0.642676 2.243734 13.346744 2.535255e+02 2.763295e+06 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.205880 0.604147 2.302885 16.395353 5.348874e+02 NaN NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.188877 0.587331 2.462606 21.572068 1.486793e+03 NaN NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.166028 0.542143 2.469529 26.210787 4.270629e+03 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.138266 0.464187 2.218591 26.465733 8.155265e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.114390 0.391758 1.939176 25.255870 1.358999e+04 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.101794 0.361828 1.914227 29.652397 6.437683e+04 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.090547 0.332570 1.867998 34.097732 5.269973e+05 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.081844 0.310998 1.861172 40.791304 5.055477e+07 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.073934 0.289511 1.834579 47.839133 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.063920 0.253113 1.638896 45.735517 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.054796 0.217962 1.423625 40.845318 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.049286 0.199587 1.350008 43.400804 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.046241 0.193000 1.386020 54.625221 NaN NaN NaN